Coface sees risks for Switzerland in Germany’s insolvency crisis; higher financing costs for Swiss firms Coface sees risks for Switzerland in Germany’s insolvency crisis Coface sees risks for Switzerland in Germany’s insolvency crisis 27.04.2026, 13:04 UhrZurich - Germany’s stagnating economy has been hit particularly hard by rising energy costs, according to a Coface analysis. In 2025, insolvencies experienced their third consecutive year of double-digit increases and are unlikely to recover in 2026 – creating a situation that poses a major risk for Switzerland. (CONNECT) Insolvencies in Germany rose for the fourth consecutive year in 2025, reaching their highest level since 2014. This is according to ananalysisfrom the credit insurer and risk managerCoface. Noting that the situation will be exacerbated by the conflict with Iran, Coface warns that there are risks for Switzerland in particular. It cites recent data from the Federal Statistical Office showing that insolvencies rose by 10 per cent last year, following increases of 22 per cent in both 2023 and 2024. The hardest hit industries were construction, retail and wholesale trade, and hospitality. Proportionally, in terms of sector size, the transport and storage sector was the most vulnerable in 2025. Under different circumstances, the simultaneous decline in major bankruptcies and the resulting expected losses could have been taken as a positive sign, writes Coface. A wide-ranging government support package had also brightened the outlook at the start of the year. But the war in Iran has drastically counterbalanced the situation, destabilizing supply chains, pushing up energy prices, and hitting consumer spending and business confidence hard. Coface warns of a particular risk of higher financing costs for companies. Rising prices could fuel inflation and prompt theEuropean Central Bankto increase its key interest rate, it reasons. Banks had already been steadily tightening lending conditions since 2023, which, according to Coface, has been felt particularly acutely by large companies. Experts expect the Bank Lending Survey (BLS) at the end of April to report further tightening for the first quarter, making it harder for both businesses and households to secure loans. The analysis shows that this trend comes amid declining profits at Germany’s 40 biggest stock-listed companies that have all published their 2025 results in recent weeks. According to Coface, their profits, adjusted for purchasing power, were 25 per cent lower than in 2021. As a result of the Iran conflict, Coface’s experts believe Germany’s business model is more broken than ever. Previously, the model was based on two key factors. Firstly, access to affordable fossil fuels from Russia that has now been lost. Secondly, strong exports to China and the US, which declined by double-digit percentages in 2025. Coface’s team writes that Germany’s economy has not grown in real terms since the COVID-19 crisis. In this context, rising energy prices are even more problematic: 20 per cent of Germany’s gross domestic product (GDP) relies on the manufacturing industry, including a significant portion of energy-related sectors. Experts emphasize that this factor makes Germany, together with Italy, one of the most exposed countries in Western Europe. The country remains vulnerable due to its reliance on hydrocarbons, which still account for 40 per cent of its electricity mix. Provided that the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, the analysis suggests that GDP will grow by 0.8 per cent, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than previously assumed. As for inflation, an increase of 0.4 percentage points to 2.4 per cent is expected. For the Swiss economy, the performance of the German economy is critical, according to Coface’s chief economist for the DACH region Markus Kuger. In 2025, 15 per cent of all imports came from Germany, he emphasizes. Meanwhile, 11 per cent of all exports were sent to the neighboring country. By comparison, the US accounts for 15 per cent. At the same time, Switzerland is facing its own challenges: last year, insolvencies rose by 50 per cent. While this increase can be attributed to the change in the legal landscape (LP SchKG), the figure of 9,300 insolvencies is exceptionally high compared to 24,000 in the much larger German market. Swiss companies must also contend with higher prices for fossil fuels while both consumers in the country and the heavily export-oriented economy are unsettled by the geopolitical landscape. Markus Kuger writes that an interest rate hike in Switzerland seems unlikely but highlights that the country is nevertheless affected by potential inflation and interest rate increases in the eurozone. Swiss companies have previously been able to count on excellent payment behavior from German partners, but according to Coface’s 2025 Payment Survey, this has noticeably deteriorated. “Swiss companies should pay more attention to payment patterns of Germany-based enterprises in 2026 and secure their receivables,” warns Markus Kuger. ce Givaudan starts work on new fragrance factory in Mexico Burckhardt Compression to supply compressors for LNG terminals KIWI allows start-ups to perform sustainability self-assessments Bäumlin & Ernst AG wins Innovation Award at Techtextil Ideal-Tek wins S-GE Export Award Siegfried conquers regulatory hurdles for acquisitions First participant receives Repertoire cancer therapy Wir sind auch auf folgenden Social Media-Plattformen präsent. Bitte folgen Sie uns auch dort. --- Source: https://swiss-export.com/de/newsfeed/149978/ sdDatePublished: 2026-04-27T15:05:00Z Topics: economy, economy, business and finance Locations: Italy, Switzerland, Zürich, Germany, Mexico, United States