ifo Institute and BILD hilft e.V. Ein Herz für Kinder present Chancenmonitor 2026 in Berlin; 6.6-point gender gap in Gymnasium access.

Chancenmonitor 2026: Social Background Crucial for Educational Opportunities, Boys at a Disadvantage

Analysis by the ifo Institute and BILD hilft e.V. “Ein Herz für Kinder”

Keynote speech by Federal Minister of Education Karin Prien

Already nine million euros allocated to national education projects in the field of equal opportunities by BILD charity

Educational opportunities in Germany are strongly influenced by social origin, family background, and gender. This is the result of the Chancenmonitor 2026 (Opportunity Monitor 2026) by the ifo Institute and BILD hilft e.V. “Ein Herz für Kinder,” which was presented today in Berlin at Axel Springer in the presence of Federal Minister of Education Karin Prien.

“Our analysis shows how strongly the likelihood of attending a Gymnasium (academic-track secondary school) is determined by parents’ education and income,” says Ludger Wößmann, Director of the ifo Center for the Economics of Education.

The probability of attending a Gymnasium is 16.9 percent if a child grows up with parents without a university entrance qualification (Abitur) in the lowest income quartile and without a migration background. By contrast, it is 80.3 percent if the child grows up with parents holding an Abitur in the highest income quartile and with a migration background. Parental education and income carry particularly strong weight.

“It is also concerning that boys systematically have lower educational opportunities than girls,” adds ifo researcher Vera Freundl. “While 43.5 percent of girls attend a Gymnasium, only 36.9 percent of boys do—a gap of 6.6 percentage points that persists across all social groups.” However, this gender gap to the disadvantage of boys is smaller in the highest education and income groups. It widens over the course of schooling and reaches 9.6 percentage points at ages 16 to 18.

Karin Prien: “I am very grateful to ‘Ein Herz für Kinder’ and the Chancenmonitor for addressing the issue of how boys in our country are actually doing. In our society, many boys are currently facing greater challenges in the education system. Results from learning assessments indicate that they experience declines in performance more frequently. In my view, this is an important societal issue in Germany that deserves more attention and more targeted support for boys. I believe it is one of the central social problems we face in Germany—that we need to do more for boys.”

The data basis of the Chancenmonitor is the most recent Microcensus—the largest household survey in Germany. The Microcensus provides extensive information which, due to its regular collection, offers exceptional depth of detail, enabling statistically robust statements for numerous population groups. The Chancenmonitor by ifo and “Ein Herz für Kinder” was first published in 2023.

“The new Chancenmonitor documents multiple inequalities in educational opportunities,” says Sarah Majorczyk, Chairwoman of BILD hilft e.V. “Ein Herz für Kinder” and herself a mother of three: “We must not only talk about this—we must act in a targeted way. As a BILD charity, we have therefore supported national education projects in the field of equal opportunities with a total of around nine million euros over the past three years, instead of the originally announced one million euros. For us, it is clear: a child’s social background and gender must not determine their development opportunities in Germany.”

The ifo researchers also provide policy recommendations: To improve educational opportunities for socially disadvantaged groups, more early childhood education programs are needed, along with stronger family support, high-quality teachers at schools serving disadvantaged children, more free tutoring programs, later tracking of children into different school types, and more mentoring programs. Recommendations to improve opportunities for boys include more male educators and teachers, greater attention to gender stereotypes in teaching and upbringing, earlier support for boys’ reading skills and self-regulation, increased parental engagement, and strengthening boys’ educational aspirations outside of school.

“The key lever is to start in daycare. It must not happen that children who do not speak German do not attend daycare and therefore have no opportunity to learn the language of instruction before starting school. That is why we need mandatory language proficiency and developmental diagnostics, followed by mandatory support for those who need it,” concludes Federal Minister of Education Karin Prien.

All results of the Chancenmonitor 2026 are available for downloadhere. For inquiries: Vera Freundl,+49 89 9224-1369;freundl@ifo.de; Ludger Wößmann,+49 89 9224-1699;woessmann@ifo.de

Ifo Institut, Carsten Matthäus, E-Mail:Matthaeus@ifo.de, Phone:+49 (0)89 9224-1218

BILD hilft e.V. „Ein Herz für Kinder“, Christian Senft, E-Mail:christian.senft@axelspringer.com, Phone:+49 (0)30 2591-77610

Director Communications BILD Group, Deputy Company Spokesperson