Expert panel in Mumbai discusses West Asia crisis impact on India; Rupee hits all-time low amid oil-price shock.

Expert panel in Mumbai: West Asia crisis – What it means for IndiaCIC-Newsletter – May 2026

Dr Irmela von Schenck, representative of the Deutsche Bundesbank in India, hosted an event on “The implications of the West Asia crisis on the Indian economy in the short, medium and long term” at the German Consulate General in Mumbai on 6 May 2026. The keynote speech was delivered by Dr Tirthankar Patnaik, the well-known Chief Economist at the National Stock Exchange of India in Mumbai. Twenty participants, mainly economists from banks and consulates, provided their respective perspectives and insights into the discussion conducted under the Chatham House Rule.

India imports almost 90 % of its oil. It is therefore being hit particularly hard by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the destruction of oil supply infrastructure. Mainly due to the increase in oil prices, the Reserve Bank of India(RBI)has raised its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year to 4.6 %; inflation stood at 2.1 % in the last fiscal year. In addition, higher oil prices and the structural Indian current account deficit are putting pressure on the Indian rupee. On the day before the event, the rupee had reached an all-time low of 95.43 against theUSdollar. Nevertheless, there are good reasons to consider the Indian economy to be more robust than it was in past critical phases, e.g. the Taper Tantrum of 2013. Inflation and the current account deficit are lower today, while reserve assets are significantly higher at aroundUS$700 billion. They cover imports of 11 months, compared with six to seven months in 2013. Rising interest rates on government bonds and more fiscal measures pose risks to the consolidation course for the central government budget, particularly in view of higher fertiliser prices.

India is one of the fastest-growing major economies, with theRBIexpecting real growth of 6.9 % for the current fiscal year. This growth is mainly driven by domestic activity, private consumption and public investment. India is therefore less vulnerable to global economic slowdowns than export-based economies.

The Bundesbank event provided the setting for an open and fruitful exchange, which was appreciated by all those present. This kind of event where economists and financial market experts can engage in a more in-depth exchange of ideas in a smaller group has not been held in Mumbai so far. The wish for similar follow-up events was expressed several times – a wish to be met at six month intervals.

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Climate change poses huge challenges for the financial sector, too. TheBundesbanksupports the transition to a low-carbon economy.

OrganisationbackOverview OrganisationExecutive BoardbackOverview Executive BoardProfessor Joachim NagelDr Sabine MaudererBurkhard BalzLutz LienenkämperMichael TheurerProfessor Fritzi Köhler-GeibCOO and DirectoratesCompliance and legal regulationsGTC and legal basisMission Statement and Strategy of the BundesbankThe Bundesbank: key figuresDirections

Executive BoardbackOverview Executive BoardProfessor Joachim NagelDr Sabine MaudererBurkhard BalzLutz LienenkämperMichael TheurerProfessor Fritzi Köhler-Geib

Mission Statement and Strategy of the Bundesbank

Regional Offices and branchesbackOverview Regional Offices and branchesBaden-WürttembergbackOverview Baden-WürttembergBranchesPresidentBavariabackOverview BavariaBranchesPresidentBerlin and BrandenburgbackOverview Berlin and BrandenburgBranchPresidentBremen, Lower Saxony and Saxony-AnhaltbackOverview Bremen, Lower Saxony and Saxony-AnhaltBranchesPresidentHamburg, Mecklenburg-West Pomerania and Schleswig-HolsteinbackOverview Hamburg, Mecklenburg-West Pomerania and Schleswig-HolsteinBranchesPresidentHessebackOverview HesseBranchPresidentNorth Rhine-WestphaliabackOverview North Rhine-WestphaliaBranchesPresidentRhineland-Palatinate and SaarlandbackOverview Rhineland-Palatinate and SaarlandBranchesPresidentSaxony and ThuringiabackOverview Saxony and ThuringiaBranchesPresident

Overview Regional Offices and branches

Berlin and BrandenburgbackOverview Berlin and BrandenburgBranchPresident

Bremen, Lower Saxony and Saxony-AnhaltbackOverview Bremen, Lower Saxony and Saxony-AnhaltBranchesPresident

Overview Bremen, Lower Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt

Hamburg, Mecklenburg-West Pomerania and Schleswig-HolsteinbackOverview Hamburg, Mecklenburg-West Pomerania and Schleswig-HolsteinBranchesPresident

Overview Hamburg, Mecklenburg-West Pomerania and Schleswig-Holstein

Rhineland-Palatinate and SaarlandbackOverview Rhineland-Palatinate and SaarlandBranchesPresident

Saxony and ThuringiabackOverview Saxony and ThuringiaBranchesPresident

Research and Research DatabackOverview Research and Research DataResearch CentrebackOverview Research CentreResearch Professors, Research Council and Research FellowsResearch Areas and ProgrammePeopleResearch BriefDiscussion PapersRefereed PublicationsSeminarsInvited Speakers SeriesResearch Data and Service CentrebackOverview Research Data and Service CentreResearch DataYour research project at the RDSCAbout the RDSCINEXDAPublicationsConferencesResearch Visit and InternshipPanel on Household Finances (PHF)backOverview Panel on Household Finances (PHF)About the PHFMethodologyUser-DocumentationData access and data protectionLinks and documentsSurvey on Consumer Expectations (BOP‑HH)Survey of firms (BOP-F)

Overview Research and Research Data

Research CentrebackOverview Research CentreResearch Professors, Research Council and Research FellowsResearch Areas and ProgrammePeopleResearch BriefDiscussion PapersRefereed PublicationsSeminarsInvited Speakers Series

Research Professors, Research Council and Research Fellows

Research Data and Service CentrebackOverview Research Data and Service CentreResearch DataYour research project at the RDSCAbout the RDSCINEXDAPublications

Overview Research Data and Service Centre

Your research project at the RDSC

Panel on Household Finances (PHF)backOverview Panel on Household Finances (PHF)About the PHFMethodologyUser-DocumentationData access and data protectionLinks and documents

Overview Panel on Household Finances (PHF)

Data access and data protection

Survey on Consumer Expectations (BOP‑HH)

Library and archivesbackOverview Library and archivesLibraryHistorical archive

ArtbackOverview ArtExhibitions & viewing timesPaintings and works on paperSculptures and installationsPublications

Paintings and works on paper

NumismaticsbackOverview NumismaticsCollectionSelected objectsPictures archivePublicationsExhibitionNumismatic libraryContact

Money MuseumbackOverview Money MuseumVisitor InformationExhibitionsOffers for GroupsLecturesMuseum discovery tours

International Central Bank DialoguebackOverview International Central Bank DialogueAbout usInternational Central Banking CoursesbackOverview International Central Banking CoursesApplication procedurePast coursesBilateral cooperationEU-funded projectsFrequently asked questionsRepresentative networkNewsletterContact

Overview International Central Bank Dialogue

International Central Banking CoursesbackOverview International Central Banking CoursesApplication procedurePast courses

Overview International Central Banking Courses

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