---
title: "IPCC drops RCP8.5 from global projections; doomsday scenario no longer likely."
sdDatePublished: "2026-06-19T11:19:00Z"
source: "https://www.lbbw.de/konzern/research/2026/to-the-point/lbbw-research-to-the-point-2026-cw-25_am1ccvhux6_m.pdf"
topics:
  - name: "climate change"
    identifier: "medtop:20000418"
  - name: "natural disaster"
    identifier: "medtop:20000151"
  - name: "environmental pollution"
    identifier: "medtop:20000424"
  - name: "economic trends and indicators"
    identifier: "medtop:20000346"
  - name: "public health"
    identifier: "medtop:20001358"
locations:
  - "Liechtenstein"
  - "Frankfurt am Main"
  - "Stuttgart"
  - "China"
  - "Bonn"
  - "Switzerland"
  - "Syria"
  - "United Kingdom"
  - "United States"
  - "Germany"
---


IPCC drops RCP8.5 from global projections; doomsday scenario no longer likely.

Cross-Asset- and Strategy-Research

Too hot to ignore

Moritz Kraemer -- Chief Economist
LBBWResearch@LBBW.de

June 19, 2026
Climate change is accelerating.
That is not a matter of opinion.

In June, a decision by the UN climate panel IPCC caused quite
a stir: the climate scientists resolved that the extreme scenario
RCP8.5 was no longer seen as a realistic outcome and removed
it from their projections. This climate pathway would have led to
a planetary warming of almost 5 °C, rendering human life impos-
sible in many regions of the world. The White House, as well as
parts of the German press on the right of center, triumphantly
declared that the climatologists’ projections had been wrong.
Deniers of the climate crisis cite the episode as “proof” that the
scientific underpinning of climate change is nothing more than
an ideological propaganda mission. In doing so, they confuse
projections with scenarios. RCP8.5 represented the worst con-
ceivable scenario among several – the one that would have ma-
terialized if greenhouse-gas emissions had continued to rise un-
checked, decade after decade. That this would happen was
never the experts’ central forecast.
Because many countries – including Germany – have success-
fully reduced the emissions intensity of their economies, this sce-
nario is no longer likely today. That is why experts have dropped
the “doomsday scenario”. This is how science should work when
facts change. Unfortunately, the positive scenario is now also
unlikely, the scientists say – namely that humanity will manage
to limit warming to below 1.5 °C.
Earth is warming ever faster
So, has climate change been called off? Was it all just a wild idea
by Greta Thunberg & Co? You wish! The data tell a completely
different story. Fig. 1 shows the global trend. 2025 was the sec-
ond-hottest year since records began, the year before the hot-
test. The past ten years have been the warmest ever recorded.

Hardly a
triumph for
climate deniers

Fig. 1: Global tempera-
ture anomaly relative to
average 1951-1980 (°C)

Source: NASA, LBBW Research

-0,5
0,0
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1935
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over land
over oceans

Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
Cross-Asset- and Strategy-Research | 06-19-2026
This is no longer “weather”; these are persistent trends. Such
trends are called climate – and that climate is changing ever
more rapidly.
Europe, incidentally, is the continent heating up the fastest.
Compared with the pre-industrial era, average temperatures
have already risen by 2.4 °C, versus “only” 1.4 °C worldwide.
Fig. 2 also shows that the rise in temperatures was barely no-
ticeable before the 1980s, but has clearly accelerated since. This
is no coincidence. Scientists know that man-made greenhouse
gases are a key driver of global heating. According to data from
the U.S. agency NOAA (yes, they are still allowed to collect such
data!), the share of CO2 in the atmosphere has risen significantly
(see fig. 3).
Climate change has always occurred throughout Earth’s history.
That is undisputed. But now it is humans who are – quite literally
– fueling climate change. That has never happened before.
Natural disasters are causing ever more damage
This is not only new – it is also getting ever more expensive. In
nine of the past ten years, the damage caused by natural disas-
ters (excluding earthquakes, which in general have little to do
with climate change) averaged USD 186bn. The trend is up-
wards. In the 1980s, just over USD 10bn was the norm (see
fig. 4). According to estimates by the German insurer Allianz, cli-
mate change-induced growth losses in Germany could total
more than EUR 110bn by 2030 – some 2.5% of GDP.
Climate change therefore is not only far from over – it is an ever
greater threat to our prosperity. The human suffering, especially
in poor countries, and the resulting migration flows are another
matter. Let us not forget that droughts and the desertification of
farmland were among the triggers of the exodus of Syrian refu-
gees. It is not as if Syrians had previously been unaware that
Bashar al-Assad was a brutal dictator. But hunger and the ensu-
ing rural exodus were the spark that led to a political explosion.
Climate tech: a chance for German industry
The situation is serious. But for Germany’s battered industrial
base it could also open up opportunities. Global demand for cli-
mate technology is set to rise. This could help German compa-
nies develop new world-class technologies. The expertise is
there.
What must not be repeated – as in the market for heat pumps –
is the bitter experience in photovoltaics. In that segment, Ger-
many, some years ago the global market leader, has lost out
completely to China. To win and retain a world-leading role, com-
panies need clear political guidelines and long-term planning
certainty. That certainty is increasingly lacking when climate pol-
icy changes direction every four years, in step with Germany’s
federal election cycle.
Fig. 2: Temperature
anomaly relative to 1991-
2020 average (in °C)

Source: Copernicus.eu, LBBW
Research

Fig. 3: Trend in atmos-
pheric CO2 (ppm, April)

Source: NASA/NOAA, LBBW Re-
search

Fig. 4: Global damage
costs from natural
disasters (exc. earth-
quakes, Billion USD)

Source: Our World in Data, LBBW
Research

Climate tech:
a chance
for industry
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Europe
Global
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1966
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2012
2016
2020
2024

Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
Cross-Asset- and Strategy-Research | 06-19-2026

Disclaimer: 2026-06-19 07:13
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