Yemen's Houthi militia blockades Saudi Arabia and attacks tankers in the Red Sea; complicates Hormuz reopening efforts

Yemen’s Houthi militia blockades Saudi Arabia and attacks tankers in the Red Sea; complicates Hormuz reopening efforts

Weekly house view | AI capex mistrust

Yemen’s Houthi militia widened the Middle East conflict by declaring a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia and attacking tankers in the Red Sea . The escalation complicates President Donald Trump’s effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping.

Brent oil prices topped USD 100 per barrel , the US dollar strengthened and bond yields rose. The European Central Bank held rates at 2.25% last week but signalled the possibility of a hike in September. The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England will meet this week. The BoJ appears more open to a faster tightening path, due to concerns that a weak yen may add to inflation risks. Britain’s Prime Minister Andy Burnham named John Healey as chancellor and the government is weighing a rent freeze to ease cost-of-living pressures.

The US fiscal outlook deteriorated as tariff revenues fell, and tariff refunds rose. The Trump administration unveiled 50% tariffs on select Canadian exports, a 25% levy on most Brazilian goods, and 100% duties on pharmaceutical imports. Nevertheless, US domestic data was resilient: jobless claims fell to their lowest level since 1969 and June retail sales fared better, due to World Cup-related spending.

Corporate news was mixed. Alphabet’s second-quarter earnings beat expectations, but its shares dropped about 7% as investors focused on rising AI-related capital expenditure (capex) and pressure on free cash flow. Tesla, Nestlé and Swatch all missed earnings estimates. Markets are punishing earnings misses more than rewarding beats.

" Next week’s Federal Reserve meeting is shaping up as one of the least predictable in years, " wrote Nick Timiraos, chief economics correspondent of The Wall Street Journal.

We are watching June US personal income and consumption data , as well as advance second-quarter GDP figures. Japan’s headline inflation rate rose to 1.7% in June from 1.5% in May and core inflation reached 1.6%.

In the euro area, the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index reached an eight-month high. Germany’s 10-year Bund yield climbed to 3.21%, its highest level since 2011. The latest ZEW survey shows German economic sentiment is improving.