NCCS assesses global sea-level rise impact on Switzerland; indirect economy exposed via coastal partners uncertain.
National Centre for Climate Services NCCS
The climate-induced rise in sea levels will have an impact on the global economy. Switzerland is also likely to be indirectly affected, as it depends on numerous coastal trading partners.
As sea-level rise is an ongoing threat, identifying its direct and indirect impacts is more complex than for natural events that occur at a specific point in time.
A complete picture of the economic impact would require consideration of both the gradual effects of sea-level rise and the impact of acute storm surges. This is because sea-level rise exacerbates storm surges, causing them to reach higher water levels and penetrate further inland.
The CLIMADA tool used in the project is not suitable for analysing the risks associated with gradual changes, however. The analysis therefore focuses on the impact of storm surges, although this is likely to underestimate the actual risks.
In addition to the methodological limitations, there is also a lack of high-quality data showing the links between storm surges and climate change, and between storm surges and sea-level rise. The storm surge events were therefore modelled on the basis of available data on tropical cyclones (European storm surges were not included) and a simple coastal flood model. The impacts identified thus do not reflect the full complexity of real storm surges and are subject to a high degree of uncertainty, nor are existing or future adaptation measures, such as flood protection systems, taken into account. The results presented here should therefore be interpreted with great caution. They provide an initial rough quantitative estimate, but they must be supplemented and verified by further studies.
In countries with coastlines, sea-level rise poses a significant threat to infrastructure (roads, bridges, buildings), leading to higher maintenance and repair costs. It may also be necessary to relocate people from low-lying regions. More frequent and severe storm surges on the coast can cause saltwater to intrude into freshwater resources and jeopardise drinking water supplies. In general, economic losses are to be expected in the tourism, fisheries and agriculture sectors.
Vunerability of the most relevant sectors in Switzerland
Switzerland is likely to be indirectly affected by sea-level rise due to its dependence on international production and supply chains from coastal regions.
However, the trading partners that have the highest exposure to sea-level rise are of minor economic importance for Switzerland. Although the method and available data only provide a rough estimate, it can generally be said that sea-level rise has less serious indirect impacts on the Swiss economy than the other three climate risks examined (river flooding, tropical cyclones and European winter storms).
More precise results still pending
Obtaining more precise results would require a better understanding of how sea-level rise impacts the countries directly affected, as well as the corresponding repercussions for the global economy. Future research will also require a more precise and event-based data set for storm surges, among other things.
However, it is unclear whether it is even possible to calculate the economic impact at the global level, since the consequences of gradual sea-level rise may depend much more on local conditions than those of other climate risks.
This means that a more qualitative approach could also be considered for a risk assessment of sea-level rise.
The comprehensive results of the project, interpretations and explanations of the method are summarised in the final report: NCCS-Impacts: Final Report. Project: Global impacts of climate change on Switzerland (en)
NCCS-Impacts: Final Report. Project: Global impacts of climate change on Switzerland (en)
The NCCS and priority themes