--- title: "Switzerland faces climate risks abroad disrupting supply chains in Europe; production losses rise by 2060" sdDatePublished: "2026-08-13T12:30:00Z" source: "https://www.nccs.admin.ch/nccs/en/home/climate-change-and-impacts/nccs-impacts/supply-chains/findings.html" topics: - name: "climate change" identifier: "medtop:20000418" - name: "international trade" identifier: "medtop:20000373" - name: "economy" identifier: "medtop:20000344" locations: - "Switzerland" --- Switzerland faces climate risks abroad disrupting supply chains in Europe; production losses rise by 2060 National Centre for Climate Services NCCS Climate risks abroad affect the Swiss economy through international supply chains. Which sectors are most severely affected? How are production losses developing up to 2060? Which climate risks are causing the greatest disruptions in international supply chains? The key findings are presented here, along with recommendations for action. The potential for climate risks abroad to result in significant economic impacts in Switzerland is set to increase for most countries by 2060, particularly for those that are highly exposed to a combination of several hazards. As expected, the increase is greater in a scenario without global mitigation of climate change (RCP8.5). However, even in a scenario involving consistent climate protection (RCP2.6), the economic impact on Switzerland can be expected to increase by a considerable percentage. In the scenario involving severe climate change (RCP8.5) in particular, Switzerland could experience a sharp increase in production losses across several economically significant European countries, including some neighbouring countries. Changes in neighbouring countries are particularly relevant as they are among Switzerland’s most important trading partners. Many Swiss companies source raw materials, components and services from those countries, and then sell their products back to them. This means that if climate-related disruptions such as floods or storms occur in these areas, it can affect production activities in Switzerland and the Swiss economy. Since such indirect consequences are already being felt today, and they are likely to become more frequent and more severe in the future, it is important to keep an eye on developments abroad when adapting to climate change and taking climate protection measures. Trends in production losses in Switzerland up to 2060 attributable to incidents of river flooding, with their frequency and intensity rising significantly in both future scenarios examined. Consequently, the number of countries where events of this nature could have a particularly strong economic impact on Switzerland is also rising. It is anticipated that, across all countries, river flooding will cause the highest total indirect damage in Switzerland in future. The damage caused by European winter storms and tropical cyclones will remain comparable to present levels as, according to current scientific understanding, their frequency and intensity will not increase substantially. River flooding is already one of the climate-related hazards that have the greatest impact on the Swiss economy through international supply chains. Flooding along rivers results in production losses, interrupted delivery routes and delays in the transport of goods in many countries with which Switzerland has close economic ties. Countries with frequent river flooding that also have strong economic ties with Switzerland are particularly critical. In these cases, individual floods can have far-reaching impacts on the stability and resilience of entire value chains. Extreme events abroad can lead to significant production losses in some years, which in turn has a strong impact on individual companies, but these fluctuations are often not visible in the most commonly used annual averages. If a company’s key supplier fails completely, for instance, they may be forced to stop production or look for alternative suppliers – with the associated business uncertainties. An example of this was seen in 2024, when Swiss companies were impacted on several occasions by extreme weather events and natural disasters abroad. These included floods in South Asia, heatwaves in Southern Europe and storms in North America, which led to significant disruptions to international supply chains and temporary production stoppages. These climate-related events – especially as they occurred in combination and in quick succession – had a noticeable impact on the revenue trends, cost structures and schedules of Swiss companies. In some cases, they caused revenue to shift significantly over the course of the financial year. The experiences of 2024 highlight that climate-related disruptions of this nature can pose a growing risk across all sectors. Indirect impacts on the supply chains of Swiss sectors The Swiss economy’s exposure to the indirect effects of climate change is growing due to its strong international integration. Climate-related risks such as river flooding, European winter storms and tropical cyclones in key production regions can have an impact on various Swiss industries – even if the events occur in far-away places. Wholesale trade, the pharmaceutical industry, the machinery, electrical engineering and metals (MEM) industry and the construction sector are particularly affected by global climate risks via their supply chains. The food industry and agriculture, both of which are important to the Swiss economy, may also be affected via their supply chains. While supply-chain impacts could cause the biggest losses in the textile industry, in Switzerland this is less relevant for the economy as a whole. The machinery, electrical engineering and metals (MEM) industry is one of Switzerland’s most important sectors. With an export volume of around CHF 70 billion in 2023, it accounts for over a quarter of total exports. The industry sources its raw materials, semi-finished products and capital goods primarily from Europe and Asia. Imports include metals, chemicals, machinery, computers, electronic products and vehicles. Climate-related disruptions in the foreign services sector and manufacturing have the greatest impact on the Swiss MEM industry. This influence is likely to grow in the future – firstly because digitalisation and automation are advancing in the Swiss MEM industry, which relies heavily on IT services, logistics and engineering expertise from abroad, and secondly because climate risks abroad are set to increase. Production losses in the Swiss MEM industry due to supply chain disruptions This sector includes Swiss law firms, notaries’ offices, legal consultancies, accountancy and auditing firms, providers of business management services and consulting firms. The services they provide are primarily based on knowledge and skills. The sector is important for Switzerland, as it accounts for almost 5% of the country’s total economic output. The supply chain for the services sector consists mainly of foreign services, whilst materials and products account for only a small proportion (e.g. office equipment such as computers). Consequently, failures in European countries’ service industries are one of the main triggers of production losses in Switzerland. Analyses indicate that these will increase in future. Production losses in the Swiss service industry due to supply chain disruptions The Swiss food and agricultural industries are heavily dependent on imports – especially for animal feed, seeds, fertilisers and staple foods such as rice and coffee. This dependence on imports makes domestic industries vulnerable to climate-related crop failures in growing regions abroad. Due to climate change, direct crop failures in growing regions – caused, for example, by river flooding or tropical cyclones – could lead to indirect production losses in Switzerland. In fact, direct impacts on agriculture abroad are the main cause of production shortfalls in Switzerland’s agri-food industry. Climate-related disruptions in other sectors abroad – particularly in Europe – can also lead to production losses, for example in the services sector and, to a lesser extent, in the manufacturing sector. Production losses in the Swiss food and agricultural industries due to disrupted supply chains The Swiss food and agricultural industries play an important role in the security of supply. Imports of critical goods function relatively reliably at present. Going forward, however, a key risk could arise from goods that are imported from only a few countries. For instance, Switzerland is heavily dependent on neighbouring countries for fertilisers and seeds. Climate-related disturbances could affect the security of supply for rice and coffee as well. The pharmaceutical industry is very important for Switzerland. It is also heavily dependent on imports, with 70% of the raw materials required coming from the EU. Today, and even more so in the future, river flooding is the greatest climate-related risk to the pharmaceutical industry’s global supply chains. Production sites in Europe and Asia, where many pharmaceutical intermediates are manufactured and services are provided, are particularly affected. Compared with today, annual climate-related losses incurred by the Swiss pharmaceutical industry will nearly double in the future scenario with moderate climate change (RCP2.6), and more than triple in the worst-case scenario. The greatest losses arise from climate-related disruptions to the foreign services sector (as part of logistics, transport and IT infrastructure) and the manufacturing industry, followed by agriculture (as a supplier of ingredients and raw materials). Production losses in the Swiss pharmaceutical industry due to supply chain disruptions With regard to the security of supply of medicines, it should be noted that in Switzerland, the industry is increasingly focusing on the production of highly specialised medicines and less on medicines for basic care such as antibiotics, cardiovascular medicines, painkillers and insulin. The majority of these essential medicines are produced in Asia – and by only a few manufacturers. This has made supply chains more vulnerable. Disruptions caused by climate-related extreme weather events can quickly lead to bottlenecks. Supply shortages have already become more common in Switzerland. Climate change could exacerbate these challenges, not only by impacting supply chains, but also by contributing to the spread of pathogens as well as respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, thereby increasing demand for medicines. Demand for critical raw materials such as copper, lithium and rare earths is expected to increase dramatically. They are essential for energy transition technologies and are used, for example, in the manufacture of electric vehicles, wind turbines and battery storage systems. However, their procurement is often dependent on geopolitical factors and linked to environmental concerns. Furthermore, they can be sourced from just a few countries. Switzerland mainly imports semi-finished products rather than sourcing raw materials directly. The most important imports include refined copper for machinery, phosphate products for the pharmaceutical and food industries, and magnesium and titanium for the high-tech industry. Most materials are sourced indirectly via the EU. In absolute terms, the highest losses attributable to climate risks abroad are recorded in the Swiss pharmaceutical industry, in the electricity, gas and steam supply sectors, and in air conditioning. The pharmaceutical industry is heavily dependent on imported raw materials – particularly chemicals. The power supply sector relies on mining products. There have also been significant losses in the construction sector, the chemical industry and the manufacture of computers, electronic and optical products. All of these sectors rely on raw materials for their production processes – for example, steel in the construction industry or certain metals for electronic components. In relative terms, the highest losses are recorded in the manufacturing sector, particularly in the production of coke and refined petroleum products, basic metals and chemicals. Production losses in Swiss industries due to disruptions in raw material production abroad The main producers and import partners for critical raw materials Supply shortages caused by climate-related risks abroad are most likely to affect material