JCI naik +10,51% MoM Juli 2026 di Indonesia; laba kuartal II melampaui ekspektasi

Schroders Indonesia Monthly Market Recap & Commentary - Juli 2026

Pada Juli 2026, IHSG menguat signifikan sebesar +10,51% MoM dengan didukung arus masuk dana asing sebesar Rp1,6 triliun. Sejalan dengan itu, indeks LQ45 dan IDX80 masing-masing naik +12,32% dan +12,68%. Penguatan pasar didorong oleh hasil laba kuartal II 2026 yang melampaui ekspektasi, serta rotasi dana investor asing dari Korea Selatan ke pasar negara berkembang yang masih tertinggal, termasuk Indonesia dan Filipina, di tengah aksi jual global pada saham-saham terkait AI. Pada Juli 2026, suku bunga acuan global bergerak lebih tinggi seiring kembali munculnya kekhawatiran inflasi di tengah kenaikan harga minyak dan meningkatnya ketegangan AS-Iran. Harga minyak WTI dan Brent melonjak lebih dari 20% hingga mencapai USD85 dan USD90 per barel. Dengarkan podcast dan baca laporan lengkapnya di bawah ini.

Market Recap & Commentary hanya tersedia dalam bahasa Inggris. Highlight dalam bahasa Indonesia tersedia pada bagian bawah halaman ini.

Trade surplus 5M26 continued to narrow to US$4bn. This was US$5.6bn in 4M26. Export growth in 5M26 slowed to 3% (from 5.5% in 4M26), but imports growth accelerated to 15% YoY (from 13% YoY in 4M26).

June 2026 inflation rose +44bps MoM, 3.34% YoY (vs May 3.08% YoY). Key drivers are Transportation (+2.29% MoM, +4.57 YoY), F&B and cigs (+0.2% MoM, +4.67% YoY).

Indonesia’s PMI released by S&P Global for June 2026, stood at 46.9. This figure represents a decline from the 50.0 recorded in May 2026, signalling that Indonesia’s manufacturing sector has re-entered contraction territory (below the 50 mark).

Ministry of finance reported realisation of tax revenue as of 1H26 has reached around 45% or about Rp1,061tn of the target set for the state budget (APBN) this year at Rp2,358tn.

Parliament approved preliminary budget for 2027. This will then be used to design RUU APBN on 16Aug2026. After that, the RUU APBN 2027 will be discussed further with parliament for final APBN 2027 by end of Oct2026.

Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa projected the 2026 state budget deficit will widen to Rp734.3tn (2.85% of GDP) vs. original target of Rp689.1tn (2.68% of GDP), presented at the DPR Budget Committee working meeting.

Bank Indonesia announced that foreign exchange reserves stood at US$145.6bn at the end of June 2026. This figure represents an increase of US$700mn compared to the level in May, yet it remains well below the US$152.57bn recorded at the end of June 2025.

Consumer confidence weakened again in June 2026, with Bank Indonesia recording a decline in the Consumer Confidence Index (IKK) to 117.8 from 120.9 in May 2026.

Indonesia non-tax state revenue is recorded at Rp271tn in 1H26, which increased +21.6% YoY and reached 59% of the 2026 state budget (ARBN) target, mainly driven by higher commodity prices and volume.

S&P Global Ratings affirmed its ‘BBB’ long-term sovereign credit ratings on Indonesia, with outlook stable on the back of higher commodity prices and expenditure cuts.

IDX revised its high shareholding concentration (HSC) methodology by introducing a new price-impact ratio criterion for all stocks with market caps above Rp10tn. A total of 37 new stocks now meet the HSC criteria, expanding the HSC list to 51 stocks.

Bank Indonesia recorded Indonesia’s external debt position at US$444.4bn in May 2026. This figure represents a year-on-year (YoY) growth of 2.1%, slightly higher than the 2% YoY growth recorded in April 2026.

The Bank Indonesia Board of Governors Meeting (RDG) held on July 21–22, 2026, decided to maintain the BI-Rate at 5.75%, the Deposit Facility rate at 4.75%, and the Lending Facility rate at 6.50%.

Perry Warjiyo resigned as Governor of Bank Indonesia, ahead of roughly two years left on a term running to 2028. Senior Deputy Governor Destry Damayanti steps in as Acting Governor under Article 50(2) of the BI Law.

Bank Indonesia reported June 2026 banking credit growth accelerated to 12.67% YoY, up from 11.51% in May (BI’s FY target 8-12%). Growth was led by investment credit, followed by working capital credit, and consumer credit.

The state budget (APBN) deficit for the first semester of 2026 reached Rp196.5tn (0.76% of GDP), driven primarily by high interest payments on past debt.

In the month of July 2026, JCI posted a return of +10.51% MoM with foreign inflow of Rp1.6tn. LQ45 index posted a MoM return of +12.32% while IDX80 at +12.68%. Equity market rebounded in July as blue chip names rebounded as 2Q26 earnings results turned better than expected while we saw some foreign inflow into Indonesia triggered by global AI selloff. We note foreign investors rotated from South Korean equities to lagging EMs such as Indonesia and Philippines. However, there were volatility occurring towards the end of the month as Bank Indonesia’s governor, Perry Warjiyo, suddenly resigned signalling concern central bank independence risk. Market is left guessing who will be the successor. Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh continued his hawkish stance despite maintaining Fed rates in July which added pressure to the global AI and tech names. Despite easing concerns on US-Iran war in June, attacks reoccurred in July which briefly pushed up oil price above USD90

bbl. Though the two countries have started to pull back attacks as we entered August and brought oil price down.

July 2026 equity markets experienced a notable rotation away from mega-cap tech and AI-related stocks toward defensive and value sectors. Major U.S. benchmarks finished flat to lower—with the S&P 500 near -0.06% and the Nasdaq down roughly 3.2%—while sectors like energy and financials surged on rising oil prices and a cautious Federal Reserve. The Fed left rates unchanged but struck a cautious, higher-for-longer tone, sending Treasury yields higher. Looking deeper, earnings growth is still highly concentrated. Roughly three-quarters of overall S&P 500 earnings gains came from information technology and communication services. The Magnificent Seven continued to outperform the broader market, while some headline strength was boosted by one-off investment gains at major hyperscalers.

The UK FTSE All-Share delivered stronger returns than most developed markets, advancing 3.7%. Its limited exposure to technology and heavier weighting in sectors that performed well during the month provided a tailwind. Robust gains in energy stocks, supported by rising oil prices, together with strength in financials, helped offset weaker areas of the market. Meanwhile, European equities ended the month broadly unchanged. The region’s sector mix sits between that of the UK and US, with exposure to industrials and financials helping to balance out softness in technology-related names.

Japanese equities showed a mixed performance over the month. The TOPIX ended broadly unchanged, while the technology-heavy Nikkei 225 dropped nearly 8% as semiconductor stocks came under pressure. The divergence between the two benchmarks highlights differences in sector composition: the TOPIX’s larger exposure to industrials, financials, and domestically focused companies helped cushion weakness in technology. The sell-off in semiconductors was partly driven by concerns over slowing global demand and tighter export restrictions, which weighed heavily on Japan’s tech sector. Meanwhile, industrials benefited from resilient domestic demand and infrastructure-related spending, while financials gained from expectations of higher interest rates.

Emerging markets ended up being the weakest performers during the month, with the MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index down 3.2% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index off 3.0%. The declines were driven by their heavier reliance on the semiconductor manufacturing supply chain, in contrast to the US where AI exposure is concentrated in hyperscalers and software platforms. Concerns over China’s advanced semiconductor technology sparked steep sell-offs in SK Hynix (-35%) and Samsung Electronics (-21%), with leveraged single-stock ETFs amplifying the downturn. This dragged South Korea (-17.1%) and Taiwan (-5.3%) sharply lower, more than offsetting China’s strong +9.0% contribution to the index. Foreign investor outflows from South Korea reached multi-month highs, reflecting heightened geopolitical risks and tighter US export controls on advanced chips. Taiwan’s weakness was compounded by softer global demand for consumer electronics, while China’s resilience was supported by policy stimulus and selective strength in domestic consumption.

Growth prospects remain intact while we think that Indonesian equities trades at an undemanding valuation at about 9x PE vs historical mean at 15x and below pandemic levels of 10x. Government policy uncertainties remains as the major risk. Concerns on weak on the ground economy also became a risk to growth while investors closely monitor corporate earnings. In addition, heightened geopolitical tension particularly in the Middle East added more volatility in the market. Thus, we are being defensive in the time being and focus on names that could give us earnings resilience while also plays to the new presidential administration. Stock selection is key at the moment in our view.

All eyes are on the presidential speech for independence day in August as policies and budget for 2027 will be addressed. Hence, we think investors will be relatively cautious at the beginning of the month. Investors are also waiting for more clarity on who will take over as the new Bank Indonesia governor. Outcome from both government and Bank Indonesia will determine investors’ mood going forward. Meanwhile, regulators are still closely talking to MSCI to appease concerns from foreign passive investors before the November announcement. Hence, we think that equity market may continue to see some short term volatilities

Global rates continued to push higher as inflation concerns once again reignited through higher oil prices and the escalation of US-Iran War. WTI and Brent prices ended the month higher to $85

barrel surged by 20%+ in July. Fed continued to hold key rate steady at 3.5-3.75, with a hawkish hold. Three out of twelve Fed members dissented and voted for an immediate 25bps hike. Market reacted by pushing up long-end UST higher close to 5.3% level as fear of inflation as some market participants believe holding the key rate might be a policy mistake. While short-end UST rallied given lower chance of aggressive hike, the probability of rate hike in September was slashed to 50% from almost fully priced in before the meeting.

DXY calmed down in July back to a touch below 100 levels down by -1.2%, Yen intervention leads to gains of 3.9% to 157.40. Asian currencies mostly performed against the USD, except Rupiah that continued to move lower -0.64% to Rp18,022

USD. Despite weakening, Rupiah is considered relatively stable in the month of July and BI held the key rate at 5,75% moreover BI also seen to be less aggressive in accepting bids as well as awarding the yield. Latest auction in July maintained the cut-off yield of 12M at 7.67% relatively unchanged since early July. S&P decided to maintain Indonesia outlook at stable which helped to improve sentiments.

In rates market, UST curve bear steepened in July with 2-yr sold off by 12bps to 4.29% and 10-yr sold-off by 27bps to 4.73%. The 30-yr also hits high since 2007 to 5.27%, sold off by 30bps. This movement was caused by fear of inflation as AI boom as well as high oil prices may risk prices on the upside, while Fed has not tighten yet. In local rates market, the curve performed mixed with sizeable PBS32 matured in July of Rp 90TN – we observed rally in <1yr government bond to 6.5-6.9% levels from above 7% earlier in the month. The 2yr also rallied by -11bps to 7%, 5yr sold off by 22bps to 7.28% and 10yr sold off by 18bps to 7.31%.

Foreign turned inflows of Rp6.4tn