--- title: "Hamburger Hochbahn AG rating equalisation with the State of Hamburg, Germany; Extremely likely state support" sdDatePublished: "2026-08-17T12:30:00Z" source: "https://www.hochbahn.de/resource/blob/119336/faaf215bd16ced7eb78a76589128a2a4/credit-rating-2026-data.pdf" topics: - name: "public transport" identifier: "medtop:20001362" - name: "financial service" identifier: "medtop:20001370" - name: "government budget" identifier: "medtop:20000607" - name: "sustainability" identifier: "medtop:20001374" locations: - "Schleswig-Holstein" - "Lower Saxony" - "Hamburg" - "Germany" --- Hamburger Hochbahn AG rating equalisation with the State of Hamburg, Germany; Extremely likely state support Hamburger Hochbahn AG Rating Report │ 29 July 2026 fitchratings.com 1 Public Finance Government-Related Entities Germany Hamburger Hochbahn AG The affirmation of Hamburger Hochbahn AG’s (HOCHBAHN) ratings reflects its legal status, which Fitch Ratings views as tantamount to a guarantee. This results in rating equalisation with the State of Hamburg (AAA), as Fitch considers HOCHBAHN to be a government-related entity (GRE) of the state and looks through its direct owner, Hamburger Gesellschaft für Vermögens- und Beteiligungsmanagement mbH (HGV). We assess HOCHBAHN’s Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) at ‘bbb’ and view extraordinary support from the state as being ‘Extremely Likely’. In the absence of the single factor that leads to equalisation, this would result in the company being rated one notch below the state. Key Rating Drivers Support Score Assessment – ‘Extremely Likely’: We believe that extraordinary support from the State of Hamburg is ‘Extremely Likely’ in case of need, reflecting a score of 40 out of 60 under our GRE criteria. Responsibility to Support: Fitch assessed both factors related to responsibility to support as ‘Very Strong’, reflecting the tighter control from its sponsor and the support mechanisms from the State of Hamburg, including the profit-and-loss transfer agreement, investment grants and access to the liquidity of the State of Hamburg through a cash polling agreement with HGV. Incentive to Support: We assessed both factors related to the incentive to support as ‘Strong’. This reflects HOCHBAHN’s provision of essential public transport services for the regional economy, which is difficult to substitute in the medium term, its key role in achieving the State of Hamburg’s sustainability and climate goals, and the contagion risk for other GREs if it were to default on its debt. Standalone Credit Profile – ‘bbb’: The Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) results from the combination of a risk profile assessed as ‘Stronger’ and financial profile assessed in the middle of the ‘bb’ category, with net adjusted debt/EBITDA averaging about 16.2x under Fitch’s rating case, which covers 2026-2030. Risk Profile – ‘Stronger’: HOCHBAHN’s operating revenue is stable and largely protected from competition due to its direct service contract, which is further supported by rising passenger numbers. Fare adjustments for cost changes are typically compensated and unlikely to significantly affect demand. Operating costs, supply and volume risks are fully passed through under a profit-and-loss transfer agreement, with annual subsidies covering a significant portion of expenses. Cost volatility is low, and investment planning is robust, minimising execution risk. Financial Profile – ‘bb’: We expect leverage (net adjusted debt/EBITDA) to remain high and average 16.2x in 2026-2030, driven by high investment needs. This will be supported by an increase in earnings due to high demand and new transport services from the network expansion. Half the network expansion costs will be covered by investment grants through the state and Federal Republic of Germany. Additional Rating Factors The equalisation of HOCHBAHN’s ratings with the State of Hamburg’s reflect our view that its legal status is tantamount to a guarantee. This is supported by a profit-and-loss transfer agreement with HGV, cash pooling access at the group level, and direct long-term service agreements with the State of Hamburg. As a result, there are no restrictions on support from State of Hamburg through HGV. Ratings Foreign Currency Long-Term IDR AAA Short-Term IDR F1+ Local Currency Long-Term IDR AAA Outlooks Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR Stable Long-Term Local-Currency IDR Stable Debt Ratings Senior Unsecured Debt - Long- Term Rating AAA Issuer Profile Summary HOCHBAHN provides local transportation services via metro lines and buses, serving 1.85 million people in Hamburg and 3.5 million people in the metropolitan region. Its service area covers 755 square kilometres (Hamburg) and 8,616 square kilometres (metropolitan region). Financial Data Summary (EURm) 2025 2030rc Net adjusted debt/ EBITDA (x) 14.4 15.9 EBITDA/gross interest coverage (x) 3.7 2.8 Operating revenue 1,133 1,290 EBITDA 143 205 Net adjusted debt 2,050 3,267 Total assets 2,676 - rc: Fitch’s rating-case scenario Source: Fitch Ratings, Fitch Solutions, Hamburger Hochbahn AG Climate Vulnerability Signal 2035 Climate Vulnerability Signal 41 Transition (Climate.VSt) 30 Physical (Climate.VSp) 33 Applicable Criteria Government-Related Entities Rating Criteria (July 2025) Public Policy Revenue-Supported Entities Rating Criteria (July 2026) Related Research Fitch Affirms Hamburger Hochbahn AG at ‘AAA’; Outlook Stable (July 2025) European Mass Transit Entities – Peer Credit Analysis (March 2026) State of Hamburg (November 2025) Analysts Nilay Akyildiz +49 69 768076 134 nilay.akyildiz@fitchratings.com Tanja Paliakoudis, CFA +49 69 768076 155 tanja.paliakoudis@fitchratings.com Exclusively for the use of Nilay Akyildiz at Fitch Group, Inc.. Downloaded: 29-Jul-2026 Hamburger Hochbahn AG Rating Report │ 29 July 2026 fitchratings.com 2 Public Finance Government-Related Entities Germany Rating Synopsis Rating Sensitivities Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade A weakening of the legal status leading to reduced confidence on the government guarantee and loosening links between HOCHBAHN and its sponsor, including a perceived dilution of support, could lead to a downgrade of the ratings to one notch below the State of Hamburg’s ratings. Negative rating action on the State of Hamburg would be mirrored in HOCHBAHN’s ratings, assuming that their links were unchanged. Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade The rating is at the highest level on Fitch’s rating scale and cannot be upgraded. Issuer Profile HOCHBAHN, established in 1911 as a stock-holding corporation under German law, is wholly owned by the city-state of Hamburg through the city’s wholly owned intermediate holding company, HGV. HOCHBAHN is also a key member of the Hamburg Public Transport Association (Hamburger Verkehrsverbund; hvv) and, as such, is one of Germany’s leading local public transport operators. Transport association hvv, founded on 29 November 1965, covers Hamburg and neighbouring areas in the German States of Schleswig-Holstein and Lower Saxony (both ‘AAA’/Stable). Transportation services are provided by 29 companies, such as HOCHBAHN, S-Bahn Hamburg AG, DB Regio und Start Unterelbe GmbH, VHH, and HADAG. hvv is owned by its local and regional governments responsible for providing public transport in the service area. It is 85.5% owned by the State of Hamburg, 3% by Schleswig-Holstein and 2% by Lower Saxony, while the remainder is owned by counties in the neighbouring areas of Hamburg. Under a public passenger transport directive, Hamburg designated HOCHBAHN as the provider of its public transport services in 2009. The mandate was renewed on 27 November 2019 for metro and bus services, with terms of 22.5 and 10 years, respectively. HOCHBAHN runs four metro lines and 119 bus lines. It serves 1.2 million passengers daily and accounts for half of all local public transport services within hvv’s coverage area. HOCHBAHN plays an essential public policy role in meeting the growing demand for public transport in the Hamburg metropolitan region and supporting the city’s 2030 climate goals. The city aims to provide public transport access within five minutes for all residents, a key element of its mobility transformation and climate goals. This would raise Exclusively for the use of Nilay Akyildiz at Fitch Group, Inc.. Downloaded: 29-Jul-2026 Hamburger Hochbahn AG Rating Report │ 29 July 2026 fitchratings.com 3 Public Finance Government-Related Entities Germany the modal share of public transport to 30% by 2030 and could double its bus services. The city also targets a fully emission-free bus fleet by 2030. Support Rating Factors Summary Responsibility to support Incentives to support Support score Support category Decision making and oversight Precedents of support Preservation of government policy role Contagion risk Very Strong Very Strong Strong Strong 40 (max 60) Extremely Likely Source: Fitch Ratings Decision Making and Oversight Fitch’s assessment reflects the City and State of Hamburg’s full ownership through HGV, ensuring tight control of HOCHBAHN’s operations, investments and funding as the largest local public transport provider with a monopolistic share within the city of Hamburg. Under regulation (EC) No. 1370/2007 for public transport services, Hamburg exercises control over HOCHBAHN as if it were part of its own administrational unit. HOCHBAHN's management board comprises four members appointed by the supervisory board. Half of the supervisory board’s 16 members represent Hamburg, including delegates from HGV and the city’s finance department. Fitch believes this structure ensures tighter oversight and control over HOCHBAHN. HGV, which Fitch views as an intermediate holding company of Hamburg, holds a large part of Hamburg’s GREs and shareholdings, including HOCHBAHN as the city’s primary public transport provider. HOCHBAHN’s financial figures are consolidated in HGV’s group accounts. Fitch sees HGV as the organisational unit for HOCHBAHN, but the State of Hamburg is ultimately liable. HOCHBAHN also manages the local network infrastructure and therefore plays a strategic role in Hamburg’s local transportation and environmental planning policy. Precedents of Support HOCHBAHN serves as Hamburg’s main public transport provider, ensuring mobility across the city, including remote areas, and delivering essential public services (Daseinsvorsorge), such as operating unprofitable routes. A tangible sign of support is the profit-and-loss transfer agreement between HOCHBAHN and Hamburg through HGV that provides annual deficit compensation (Fehlbetragsausgleich). This ensures HOCHBAHN receives consistent support from its owner to cover its losses. The company regularly receives investment grants. It plans to invest about EUR3.8 billion between 2026 and 2030, half of which we expect to be covered by grants. HOCHBAHN also benefits from cash pooling at the group level, Source: Fitch Ratings, HOCHBAHN City- State of Hamburg HGV Local Public Transport Transportation and Logistics Supply and Disposal Real Estate and Urban Development Other Shareholdings HOCHBAHN 100% 100% Hamburger Hochbahn AG – Organisational Chart Exclusively for the use of Nilay Akyildiz at Fitch Group, Inc.. Downloaded: 29-Jul-2026 Hamburger Hochbahn AG Rating Report │ 29 July 2026 fitchratings.com 4 Public Finance Government-Related Entities Germany enabling access to liquidity directly from HGV rather than relying on external credit lines, ensuring it has sufficient liquidity. HOCHBAHN’s transport services are not subject to EU competition rules and there are no restrictions on government support due to the direct award of a service contract by the State of Hamburg on 27 November 2019. In 2014, Hamburg prompted HOCHBAHN and VHH – both wholly owned by the city through its holding company HGV – to meet the criteria for the direct award of the service contract under EU Regulation No. 1370/2007. Both companies complied with the regulation. The relevant passenger transport act protects HOCHBAHN from competition for the duration of the contract. As a result, public transport in Hamburg is provided by consolidated, city-owned entities under exclusive arrangements for public services, fully compliant w