Futurium report uses scenario modelling to support Biennial Transparency Reporting under the Paris Agreement; Two-country insights from Kazakhstan and Kenya

Futurium | RE-CONNECT: Modelling, Projecting and Tracking Emissions Reduction Pathways project - Climate Change Modelling 4-Monthly Report, September 2026

Nanasha-Aishet… 3 September 2026 - updated 23 hours ago

Using Scenario Modelling to Support Biennial Transparency Reporting

This report focuses on the use of scenario modelling and projections to support Biennial Transparency Reporting under the Paris Agreement. With the deadline for Parties to submit their 2nd Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs) at the end of 2026, this report has been developed to provide modellers with a clear overview of BTR requirements relating to projections, common challenges relating to reporting projections, guidance on how to overcome these, and how specific models can support this.

The report is structured as follows:

Section 2: outlines the objectives and scope of the report.

Section 3: provides the context for this report; focusing on why the topic matters, BTR reporting requirements relating to projections, etc) and presenting key challenges relating to emissions projections identified from the first round of BTRs.

Section 4: is dedicated to one of the key challenges relating to reporting projections in BTRs; the need to ensure alignment between projections and a country’s national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory.

Section 5: presents experience and lessons learnt from two countries (Kazakhstan and Kenya) who have recently undertaken the task of preparing projections for inclusion in their BTR; this section offers important insights into challenges faced by the teams who prepare and report projections in their BTR.

Section 6: spotlights selected modelling tools and how they can address the challenges identified.

Section 7: summarises recent publications relevant to the topic.

Section 8: offers guidance and resources for projections and BTRs generally.

Section 9: provides details on key events relevant to the GHG modelling community.

For dull details, download the report below .

3 September 2026 - updated 23 hours ago

updated 23 hours ago

Using Scenario Modelling to Support Biennial Transparency Reporting This report focuses on the use of scenario modelling and projections to support Biennial Transparency Reporting under the Paris Agreement. With the deadline for Parties to submit their 2nd Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs) at the end of 2026, this report has been developed to provide modellers with a clear overview of BTR requirements relating to projections, common challenges relating to reporting projections, guidance on how to overcome these, and how specific models can support this. The report is structured as follows: Section 2: outlines the objectives and scope of the report. Section 3: provides the context for this report; focusing on why the topic matters, BTR reporting requirements relating to projections, etc) and presenting key challenges relating to emissions projections identified from the first round of BTRs. Section 4: is dedicated to one of the key challenges relating to reporting projections in BTRs; the need to ensure alignment between projections and a country’s national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory. Section 5: presents experience and lessons learnt from two countries (Kazakhstan and Kenya) who have recently undertaken the task of preparing projections for inclusion in their BTR; this section offers important insights into challenges faced by the teams who prepare and report projections in their BTR. Section 6: spotlights selected modelling tools and how they can address the challenges identified. Section 7: summarises recent publications relevant to the topic. Section 8: offers guidance and resources for projections and BTRs generally. Section 9: provides details on key events relevant to the GHG modelling community. For dull details, download the report below .

Climate Change Modelling 4-Monthly Report, September 2026