NAFO Joint Commission-Scientific Council Working Group on Risk-Based Management Strategies (WG-RBMS) Meeting Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

NAFO Joint Commission-Scientific Council Working Group on Risk-Based Management Strategies (WG-RBMS) Meeting Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

com-scdoc26-03 WG-RBMSRpt Aug2026

Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization

www.nafo.int Serial No. N7752

NAFO/COM-SC Doc. 26-03 Report of the NAFO Joint Commission-Scientific Council Working Group on Risk-Based Management Strategies (WG-RBMS) Meeting 05-07 August 2026 Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Opening by co-Chairs, Ray Walsh (Canada) and Diana González-Troncoso (European Union) ……………….. 2 2. Appointment of Rapporteur ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 2 3. Adoption of Agenda …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 2 4. 2+3KLMNO Greenland halibut …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 2 a. Application of the 2+3KLMNO Greenland halibut Management Strategy (COM Request 2)……………….. 2 b. Development of Stock Summary Sheets for NAFO managed stocks that are evaluated using MSE processes (COM Request 4) ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 3 5. Progress on the MSE process for 3LN redfish (COM Request 3) ………………………………………………………………………. 3 6. Precautionary Approach Framework……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 3 a. Updates on reference points (COM request 7) ……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 3 b. Guidance to the Scientific Council for providing advice under the revised PAF (COM Doc. 25-16) when projections are not possible ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 3 c. Initial review of outdated PAF references in the NAFO CEM ………………………………………………………………………. 4 7. Continued discussions relating to 3LNO shrimp (COM Request 11) ………………………………………………………………. 4 a. Scientific Council response to Commission request 11 ………………………………………………………………………………… 4 b. Canadian MSE…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 4 8. Marine Stewardship Council Requirements Under its Standard 3.0 ……………………………………………………………….. 4 9. Other Business ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 4 a. Commission request 12 to Scientific Council to consider a plan for carrying out benchmarks ………….. 4 b. Stock summary sheet traffic light application ………………………………………………………………………………………………… 5 c. Scientific Council workload ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 5 10. Recommendations ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 5 11. Adoption of the Report ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 5 12. Adjournment ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 5 Annex 1. List of Participants ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 6 Annex 2. Agenda ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 8

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www.nafo.int Report of the NAFO Joint Commission-Scientific Council Working Group on Risk-Based Management Strategies (WG-RBMS) Meeting 05-07 August 2026 Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada 1. Opening by co-Chairs, Ray Walsh (Canada) and Diana González-Troncoso (European Union) The co-Chairs, Ray Walsh (Canada) and Diana González-Troncoso (European Union) opened the meeting at 14:02 hours (UTC -3 hours) on Wednesday, 05 August 2026. The co-Chairs welcomed representatives in- person and virtually from Canada, Denmark (in respect of Faroe Islands and Greenland), European Union, Iceland, Japan, Norway, Russian Federation, United Kingdom, the United States of America and the Chairs of the Commission and the Scientific Council (Annex 1). 2. Appointment of Rapporteur The NAFO Secretariat was appointed as rapporteur of this meeting. 3. Adoption of Agenda The working group agreed to add one additional item under agenda item 4 to discuss the SC response to Commission request 4 on stock summary sheets for stocks that are managed under MSE. Additionally, three items under “Other Business” were added: SC response to Commission request 12 to consider a plan for carrying out benchmarks, the summary sheet traffic light application, and an update on the Scientific Council’s workload. The agenda was adopted following the revisions above and is outlined in Annex 2. 4. 2+3KLMNO Greenland halibut a. Application of the 2+3KLMNO Greenland halibut Management Strategy (COM Request 2) The Scientific Council Chair, Diana González-Troncoso (European Union), provided an update on the Scientific Council response to Commission request 2, on the application of the 2+3KLMNO Greenland halibut Management Strategy (SCS Doc. 26/12). It was noted that exceptional circumstances are not occurring and that the lower TAC derived from the management procedure (MP) reflected the survey-based target and slope components of the MP, which indicated only limited recent improvement in the stock indices compared to the most likely forecast for the stock at the time of the review. The working group highlighted an apparent misalignment between the recent increases in the survey indices compared to the decrease in the TAC. It was clarified that while some individual survey indices were increasing, others were not. The combined index used in the harvest control rule is increasing at a slower rate than had been projected, but remains within the range of the MSE simulations. The projected rate was required to achieve the agreed stock rebuilding objective of reaching Bmsy by 2044, which led to the introduction of a correction factor (control parameter μ) in 2024 that reduced the TAC output of the Management Procedure. It was noted that, without applying μ, the 2044 rebuilding target would not be achieved. However, no information was provided on when Bmsy would be reached in the absence of the correction factor, and it was therefore not possible during the meeting to quantify the extent of the delay that would result from not applying μ.

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www.nafo.int The working group discussed whether it would be appropriate to request that Scientific Council conduct further analysis. However, the working group also reflected on the review of the MSE process that is scheduled to be completed in 2027 (COM-SC Doc. 24-03 and COM-SC Doc. 25-04). It concluded that further analysis could form part of this work and could be captured as part of the Commission request for advice in 2027. Noting the discussions, the WG-RBMS agreed to recommend to the Commission that the Management Procedure be applied to set the TAC for 2027, consistent with the Scientific Council advice. b. Development of Stock Summary Sheets for NAFO managed stocks that are evaluated using MSE processes (COM Request 4) Diana González-Troncoso (European Union) provided an update on the Scientific Council response to Commission request 4 (SCS Doc. 26/12) on the development of stock summary sheets for NAFO managed stocks that are evaluated using MSE processes. An example summary sheet for 2+3KLMNO Greenland halibut was presented and discussed by the working group. Noting that the stock summary sheet was not expected to add substantially to the Scientific Council workload, the working group agreed to adopt the template as presented and to incorporate MSE-managed stocks into the regular advice request (Commission request 1), with technical details provided in the STACFIS report and advice communicated through a summary sheet. 5. Progress on the MSE process for 3LN redfish (COM Request 3) Mariano Koen-Alonso (Canada) provided an update on the Scientific Council response to Commission request 3, relating to the progress towards an MSE for redfish in Divs. 3LN (SCS Doc. 26/12). It was noted that work is ongoing to develop operating models for the stock and the Scientific Council considers it worthwhile to continue exploring such operating models, subject to resource availability and work prioritization, while reiterating that benchmark processes are considered by SC a higher priority than MSE at this time. The working group thanked the Scientific Council for their continued work on the Divs. 3LN redfish MSE process, flagging it as a priority item for the Commission, and noted their support for its continued development. 6. Precautionary Approach Framework a. Updates on reference points (COM request 7) Diana González-Troncoso (European Union) presented an update on the Scientific Council’s progress towards updating stock reference points under the revised Precautionary Approach Framework in response to Commission request 7 (SCS Doc. 26/12). The working group thanked the Chair for the update, and noted that this work supports the core work of NAFO, and that the development of stock reference points needs to continue to be a priority. The working group also noted the stocks that could not be assessed in 2026 due to the lack of Designated Experts, and encouraged Contracting Parties to work towards filling these roles in the Scientific Council. b. Guidance to the Scientific Council for providing advice under the revised PAF (COM Doc. 25-16) when projections are not possible Following the discussions at the April 2026 WG-RBMS meeting (COM-SC Doc. 26-01), Canada presented a proposal to provide guidance to the Scientific Council for the provision of stock advice where projections are not possible under the revised Precautionary Approach Framework (COM-SC RBMS-WP 26-01). The working group had productive discussions on the working paper and welcomed the document. Canada noted that it would continue to seek input from Contracting Parties to further refine the proposal in advance of the 2026 Annual Meeting.

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www.nafo.int c. Initial review of outdated PAF references in the NAFO CEM It was highlighted that the current text of the NAFO Conservation and Enforcement Measures (CEM) relating to 3NO cod in Article 7 and 3LNO American plaice in Article 8 include references to the previous Precautionary Approach Framework (FC Do