ECIU analysis finds drought reduces potato harvest in Germany France Belgium Netherlands; 3.5m tonnes lost across five countries

Chips are down – summer drought knocks over 3 million tonnes off UK and Europe’s potato crop

Lost production could cost farmers over €800 million as Europe faces one of its smallest potato harvests on record

Last updated: 17 Sept. 2026

New analysis [1] by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) using industry data suggests that the summer drought is likely to knock around 3.1 million tonnes off the potato harvest in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands.

When the expected impacts of the drought and heatwaves on the potato harvest in Great Britain are added, this increases to over 3.5 million tonnes. With the range of current prices, this lost production would be valued at between €498m and €818m across the five countries. The losses in the four Eurozone producers would be between €405m and €622m. British potato farmers face losses between £80m and £169m. Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) said, “As we move into autumn the impact of the record-breaking summer heat and drought on food and farming becomes clear. As one of Europe’s thirstiest crops, it was inevitable that the potato harvest would be hit hard, and we are starting to see that now in industry yield estimates, down 20 per cent in some cases. For potato growers on the front line of climate change, the chips are well and truly down. “With the heatwaves already projected to have knocked millions of tonnes off the European grain harvest [2], this is yet more bad news for Europe’s farmers, farming on a continent warming at twice the global average [3]. Impacts like this only increase the urgency of bringing our climate back into balance by reaching net zero emissions. Farmers need a stable climate in order to keep growing this staple of the European diet, without the unsustainable losses that increasingly extreme weather will bring.” The estimates of lost production are based on comparisons with the five-year average, with yields 13% lower in France, 21% in Belgium, 10% in Germany and 7% in the Netherlands. This has been estimated using a combination of grower test digs, national statistics and trade estimates. Although similar data does not exist for Great Britain, where the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) ceased the publication of harvest and yield estimates in 2021 [4], World Potato Markets estimates yield in line with the drought year of 2018, 11% below the 2021-2025 five-year average [5]. Cedric Porter, Editor, World Potato Markets , said: “Weather conditions are becoming more extreme and challenging. There have been four droughts since 2018, along with large volumes of rain during winters and springtime. Investment in water management, whether it is conserving water when there is too much or irrigating during dry summers, will be essential to the continued success of the crop.” These drought and heat related losses come on top of a significantly reduced potato area, a response to the glut of potatoes in Europe last year and low prices for growers that followed. Based on yields at the five-year average, this lower area equates to a further loss of 3.6 million tonnes. This combination could see one of the smallest potato harvests on record in the European Union [6], which is already having an impact on markets and prices. In the processing market, Belgian free-market potatoes have gone from zero in April to €200 or more, German processing potatoes are making €240 a tonne against a season low of €15 in June, and British processors are paying over £300 a tonne to secure supply against £180 in February. The impact of this year’s extreme heat and dry weather has a clear link to climate change, with World Weather Attribution (WWA) finding that this summer’s heatwave temperatures would have been ‘virtually impossible’ 50 years ago [7]. Jean-Paul Dallene, potato farmer in Pas-de-Calais said, “Last year, I was left with a surplus of potatoes that I had to sell at a loss. This year, the drought has reduced my yields by 12 tonnes per hectare, resulting in a loss of income of €4,300 per hectare due to lower yields and falling contract prices. I have adapted my farming practices to incorporate no-till to minimise the impact of the water shortage. But I certainly wasn’t expecting such a severe drought, nor such extreme temperatures. Today, beyond emergency aid, we need ambitious and sustainable climate policies. Without a long-term vision, how can we adapt when every year is a climate and geopolitical lottery?” The summer drought and extreme heat have reduced the size and yield of potatoes. Belgium, the world’s largest exporter of frozen fries, has the worst potato size problem, with Fontane, the main frying variety, yielding 32 tonnes a hectare at the end of August, 30% below last year. Only half the crop is above the 50mm size processors want. Although recent rain is likely to have recovered the situation slightly, it is likely to be too late for many of Europe’s potato growers.

June heatwave knocks €2 billion off European harvest prospects – new analysis, https:

Why is Europe warming so quickly? https:

The Great Britain estimate continues the former Potato Council and AHDB estimates of total production, ware and seed together. 2026 yield is World Potato Market’s 2018-analogue scenario rather than a test-dig estimate, so the GB estimate is reported at a lower confidence level than the other countries and reported separately to the European total.

Europe: potato crop may fall below 40 million tonnes for the first time, https:

Fossil fuel emissions have rapidly worsened European heatwaves in just a few decades, https:

Impact of the 2026 summer drought and heatwaves on the European potato harvest

Mediterranean heat stress: a quarter of UK food imports worth £18 billion at risk, including fruit, veg, olive oil and wine

Heat stress and UK food imports from the Mediterranean

Heat stress farm shutterstock 1521321431

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