AfD to govern Saxony-Anhalt; first far-right state government since 1945
Cross-Asset- and Strategy-Research
A bleak experiment
Moritz Kraemer – Chief Economist LBBWResearch@LBBW.de
September 4, 2026 Germany is nearing its first far-right state government since 1945
The Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far-right party, is close to taking power in Saxony-Anhalt, an eastern German state. It is currently polling at just over 40%. The Christian Democrats (CDU), Germany’s traditional center-right party, are languishing below 25%. The Left, a post-communist left-wing party, could win 13%. The others may be lucky to make it into the state par- liament at all (see fig. 1). A party whose platform bristles with isolationist demands could thus lead a German state government. The party program calls for Germany to leave the euro, remake the EU from top to bot- tom, pursue “remigration” – a far-right euphemism for pushing migrants out of Germany – and retreat behind national ramparts. For an economy as dependent on foreign trade as Germany’s, that would be economic self-harm. Saxony-Anhalt, part of East Germany until reunification in 1990, has also become more reliant on exports. Industry’s export share has risen steadily – from 26% in 2009 to 33% in 2024. Saxony- Anhalt therefore relies on Germany’s strong reputation among foreign customers and its stable place inside the EU single mar- ket. A radical break with the status quo would unsettle compa- nies. Fear of an AfD takeover already seems so acute that some firms apparently no longer dare to speak out. Before the 2024 state elections in Saxony and Thuringia, things were different: the German Family Business Association, a lobby group for fam- ily-owned firms, published a 12-page study on the AfD’s “anti- business policies”. Fear is breeding preemptive silence. Good governance is good business The U.S. is currently showing how deteriorating governance can dampen investment. For more than a year, investment in U.S.
...