Germany Rhine freight transport disrupted by low water at Kaub; could shave up to 0.4% growth
Cross-Asset- and Strategy-Research
Heat waves are eroding our prosperity
Moritz Kraemer – Chief Economist LBBWResearch@LBBW.de
August 5, 2026 The economic costs of climate change become ever more visible
Not the heat again, some readers may groan. True: I devoted this column to climate change as recently as mid-June. The core of the analysis then was to document the overwhelming scientific evidence for human-induced climate change – and to explain why Europe is particularly exposed to global warming. Currently, we are seeing the consequences more clearly than ever before. With Europe now enduring its second heat wave of the summer, forests are burning across Southern Europe. Grain and vegetables are withering in the fields – or failing to grow in the first place. Farmers are forecasting crop failures “on an un- precedented scale”. Predictably, demands for government sup- port have followed quickly. I have some sympathy, even if the farmers’ protests have sometimes gone a little too far for my taste. Many farms may not survive, especially as droughts be- come more frequent and more intense. A mounting body count in the battle against the heat According to estimates by the Robert Koch Institute, Germany’s public-health agency, the country had already recorded almost 10,000 heat-related deaths by mid-July. That is an all-time high (see fig. 1). More than 90% of this so-called excess mortality is among people over 65. The number is likely to have risen further after two more weeks of fierce heat. France, for example, drew up plans after the scorching summer of 2003 to soften the impact on the population. Germany still finds itself unprepared for successive heat waves. But if avoidable loss of life is not enough to jolt those in power into action, perhaps the economic damage will be. It is most ob- vious at present in the low water levels of Germany’s rivers – and
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